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RFMRFMRRMRRMRFCRFCCDCDLCLifecycleAUAudiences
Compare RFM, RRM and RFC →Book a demo

RFM, read as a flow.

Recency, Frequency and Monetary value are the classic way to segment customers. Scnario recalculates them every day across 52 weeks of history and predicts the next 8, so you see where each customer came from, where they are heading, and when to act.

−52 weeks historydaily re-scoring+8 weeks prediction
CUSTOMER #48213WEEK −51Prediction
RFM SEGMENTNewFirst order placed
RECENCY5/5
Last order 5 days ago
FREQUENCY1/5
1 order in 52 weeks
MONETARY1/5
$120 in 52 weeks
NewPromisingPotential LoyalistLoyalChampionLoyalNeed AttentionAt Risk
PREDICTION
−52w−39w−26w−13wNOW+8w
Without action, the model expects a move to At risk in week +3. $1,540 of yearly spend is exposed.
Why the direction matters

Same RFM score. Opposite directions.

A classic RFM report is a photo taken on one day. Two customers with identical scores get the same label and the same campaign, even when one is sliding out of your best segment and the other is climbing back in. Tracking every day shows which is which.

Snapshot RFMone day · one label
#48213R3 · F3 · M3Need Attention
#51077R3 · F3 · M3Need Attention

Identical. Both would receive the same re-engagement message.

RFM flow in Scnario−12w → now → +8w
#48213Champion → Loyal → Need AttentionAt Risk in ~3 wks · 68%
#51077About to Sleep → Need AttentionPotential Loyalist in ~3 wks · 61%

The first needs value protection now. The second needs encouragement to keep climbing. Different scenario, different budget.

The three dimensions

How recently, how often, how much.

RRecencydays since last order

How long ago the customer last bought. The strongest single signal of whether they will buy again.

200+ daysscore 1 → 5< 14 days
FFrequencyorders in 52 weeks

How many orders in the rolling year. Shows whether a habit exists or the purchase was a one-off.

1 orderscore 1 → 512+ orders
MMonetaryspend in 52 weeks

How much the customer spent in the same period. Tells you how much value is at stake in every move.

low spendscore 1 → 5top quintile
01 · −52 WEEKSA rolling year of orders per customer, so seasonality is part of the score.
02 · EVERY DAYScores are recalculated against your own customer base, not an industry benchmark.
03 · EVERY MOVEEach change of segment is stored as a transition with its date and value.
04 · +8 WEEKSThe model predicts the next segment for each customer and how likely the move is.
The RFM map

Ten segments, connected by movement.

The classic 5×5 map: Recency on the horizontal axis, the average of Frequency and Monetary on the vertical. Select a segment to see where its customers come from, where they are likely to go in the next 8 weeks, and which scenario fits them.

RFM Matrixshare of base · this week
Recency
12345
(Frequency + Monetary) / 2
54321
Champion39,0685.0% of base
Loyal93,27312.0% of base
Can't Lose12,3331.6% of base
At Risk90,03411.5% of base
Need Attention41,4525.3% of base
Potential Loyalist61,4427.9% of base
Hibernating303,68538.9% of base
About to Sleep60,7447.8% of base
Promising32,1934.1% of base
New46,0255.9% of base
Segment colours match the flow above. Selected segment in full colour, connected segments highlighted.
At RiskR 1–2 · FM 3–4

Used to buy often and spend well, but have not returned for a while. High value at stake.

SHARE NOW11.5%
IN 8 WEEKS+0.3 pp
COMES FROM
Can't Lose18%
Loyal11%
MOVES TO · NEXT 8 WEEKS
Hibernating21%
Loyal8%
NEXT BEST SCENARIOValue protectionCRM first with a personal reason to return, paid media as support. Act within weeks, not months.
moving upmoving downDemonstration data
The RFM window

52 weeks back. 8 weeks ahead.

Each column is one week of your customer base split into RFM segments. History shows how the structure changed. The prediction shows where it is heading if nothing changes, early enough to plan the response.

+8
−52w−39w−26w−13wNOW+8w
Hover or tap any week to inspect it. Demonstration data, 48,200 customers.
NowΔ 4 weeks
Current week · 48,200 customers
Champion5.0%−0.3
Loyal12.0%−1.1
Can't Lose1.6%+0.1
At Risk11.5%+0.8
Need Attention5.3%−0.2
Potential Loyalist7.9%−0.5
Hibernating38.9%+1.5
About to Sleep7.8%+0.3
Promising4.1%−0.3
New5.9%−0.2
Managing the flow

Every transition is a moment to act.

Because Scnario tracks segments day by day, each move between them can start its own scenario. The predicted move comes first, so the response can start before the customer has fully changed segment.

PromisingPotential Loyalist
Habit buildingemail + onsite · day 10–21
Potential LoyalistLoyal
Category expansionCRM · on purchase rhythm
LoyalChampion
Advocacy and growthCRM + onsite
LoyalAt Risk
Value protectionCRM + paid · within 2 weeks
ChampionCan't Lose
Can't-lose protectionpersonal CRM + paid · immediately
About to SleepHibernating
SaveCRM + onsite · before the next missed cycle
ChurnedNew
WinbackCRM + paid · recovery after churn
Explore the product

One customer base, several ways to read it.

RFMYou are here
RFMRecency · Frequency · MonetaryWho buys recently, often and for how much, read day by day.
RRM
RRMRegistration · Recency · MonetaryHow quickly customers grow the value of their orders after acquisition.
RFC
RFCRegistration · Frequency · CategoriesHow quickly customers discover your offer across categories after acquisition.
CD
CDCategory DistributionClusters customers with similar purchase patterns across categories.
LC
LifecycleRegistration → WinbackWhere each customer is in the relationship, from registration to reactivation.
AU
AudiencesBuilt on every segmentYour own definitions built on every report, ready for communication and tracked day by day.
Your customers are already moving.

Give every relationship the right next scenario.

See how Scnario can turn your customer data into a living understanding of every relationship — and a clear decision about what should happen next.

MOVING RIGHT NOW
Registered → First purchaseonboarding
Repeat → Loyalcategory growth
Loyal → Declinevalue protection
Inactive → Renewed intentreactivation